Rurality index (2010) - ClimAfrica WP4

The ârurality indexâ represents the level of dependence, thus fragility, of a certain region to agriculture and rural means of livelihood in 2010. A population strongly dependent from agriculture is subject to suffer larger consequences from agriculture productivity drop due to climatic alteration than a population less dependent by rural livelihood means. The index results from the first cluster of the Principal Component Analysis preformed among 14 potential variables. The analysis identify four dominant variables, namely ârural population densityâ, âdietary supplyâ, âdependency ratioâ and âagriculture share GDPâ, assigning a weight of 0.22 to the ârural population densityâ and 0.26 to the other three variables. Before to perform the analysis the variable ârural population densityâ was log transformed to shorten the extreme variation and then with the other variables were score-standardized (converted to distribution with average of 0 and standard deviation of 1; âdietary supplyâ with inverse method) in order to be comparable. The 5 arc-minutes grid ârural population densityâ of 2000 was collected from FAO geonetwork, sampled at 0.5 arc-minutes and then the values were adjusted in order to have national rural population totals equal to the 2010 values reported by the World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. The 0.5 arc-minutes grid âdependency ratioâ was calculated from the 2010 age distribution population for Africa produced by Worldpop Project computing the number of people with less than 15 years old or older than 65 years old per 100 people. The values were adjusted to the country total reported by the UN Population and Demographic Office estimation (World Population Prospect - the 2012 Revision). The country based value for âagriculture share GDPâ and âdietary supplyâ were collected from World Bank and FAO statistics. The values reported are the average of the period 2008-2012. Tabular data were linked by country to the national boundaries shapefile (FAO/GAUL) and then converted into raster format (resolution 0.5 arc-minute). Rural population, or population with large number of dependent people are more fragile (i.e. sensible) to climatic stress, due to impact on food production. Similarly, high reliance on agricultureâs contribution to national GDP, makes country more susceptible to climate risk. Finally, populations with scarce dietary supply are more sensitive to climate impact on food production, because already affected by food supply concerns.

This dataset has been produced in the framework of the âClimate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptations (ClimAfrica)â project, Work Package 4 (WP4). More information on ClimAfrica project is provided in the Supplemental Information section of this metadata.

Date ( Creation ): 2014-09-01T00:00:00

Presentation form: Digital map

Purpose: Purpose of WP4 - D4.3 is to establish a medium-term warning system (based on ClimAfrica data) that produces prospective analyses about climate change impacts on agriculture for the next 10 years. This will fill the gap between seasonal scale predictions and long-term impact scenarios, and identify the future Areas of Concerns (AoCs) and likely hotspots of vulnerabilities.

Status: Completed

Originator

Rurality index (2010) - ClimAfrica WP4

Simple

gmd:MD_Metadata

Overviews

Spatial extent

Provided by

Associated resources